With the announcement yesterday that Iran may agree to have its uranium processed elsewhere, Israel has lost one of the main ‘grievances’ that it had that could have been manipulated to create a casus belli to attack Iran. This will now force Israel to create some other casus belli to justify such an attack.
Israel has been relying on the propaganda of Iran’s so-called ‘nuclear weapons program’ to build up world-wide public opinion that ultimately would support, or at least limit any public outcry, when Israel and the US launched a full-on attack against Iran designed to bring about regime change.
Iran has played it to a tee. For years Iran insisted that it does not have any nuclear weapons program but has insisted with equal vigour that it will not give up the right that it has by virtue of Article VII of the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to enrich its own nuclear fuel to the levels required to produce electrical energy. Iran has over these years insisted on the right of controlling the full nuclear cycle for itself. This insistence has provided Israel with all the ammunition it needs to accuse Iran of wanting to enrich its own uranium in order that it can then enrich it to the levels needed to build a nuclear weapon.
However, over the years, Israel’s accusations became increasingly nothing more than political rhetoric as successive reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and US National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) found no evidence whatsoever to support the claims of Israel and their Western backers. Nonetheless, despite the total lack of evidence, Israel and their Western supporters, particularly the US neoconservatives, remained highly vocal and insistent about Iran’s ‘nuclear weapons program’ in the hope that the world would eventually believe them – even in the absence of any evidence – and support a strike against Iran.
All of their efforts have now come to nothing. The Israelis and the neoconservatives will, of course, continue the propaganda that Iran is still secretly processing uranium despite the new arrangements, but they know that this alone will not be enough to convince the world that it would justify an attack against Iran. The ploy is now unlikely to work though that won’t stop them trying.
Some other ploy will now be necessary to create the casus belli the Israelis and the neocons need to affect the regime change in Iran that is required to allow the Israelis to defeat Hezbollah and Hamas. This means that there will be a return to provocation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and heightened tensions over Lebanon in order to create, yet again, the conditions required to launch another war against the Palestinians and Arabs that might draw in Iran thus creating a strong enough casus belli to launch a regime changing attack against Iran based on their support for Hezbollah and Hamas.
Once again, the ball is now well and truly in Israel’s court.